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Angus Reid release – As Liberal Party supporters begin the process of choosing a replacement for Stéphane Dion, a political figure who has already announced he would not seek the party’s leadership is regarded in high esteem by both Canadians and Grit supporters, a new Toronto Star / Angus Reid poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 adults, 34% of respondents express a favourable opinion of former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna, while 22% hold unfavourable views. McKenna has a favourability score of +12—the best rating of 13 Liberal figures included in the poll.

Canadians are evenly divided in their assessment of former deputy prime minister and finance minister John Manley (30% favourable, 30% unfavourable). Current deputy leader Michael Ignatieff has a momentum score of -4, followed by former Ontario education minister Gerard Kennedy at -5, and Willowdale MP Martha Hall Findlay at -7.

What Canadians think

Next on the list of Liberal figures is Beauséjour MP Dominique Le Blanc with -10, followed by former public works and government services minister Scott Brison and Ottawa South MP David McGuinty both with -13. Former Ontario premier Bob Rae, former immigration minister Denis Coderre, and former prime minister Paul Martin are all at -14. Former prime minister Jean Chrétien and outgoing leader Dion hold the lowest favourability ratings among Canadians (-22 and -39 respectively).

A majority of Canadians are undecided when asked their opinion about Kennedy, Hall Findlay, LeBlanc, McGuinty, Brison and Coderre.

Among respondents who voted for the Liberal Party in the 2008 federal election, five men surpass the 50% mark in favourability. McKenna is once again the leader at +37, followed by Martin at +30, Ignatieff at +28, Dion at +26, Chrétien at +21, Manley at +18, and Rae at +17. At least 45% of Liberal voters are undecided in their assessment of Hall Findlay, McGuinty, Coderre, Kennedy, Brison, and LeBlanc.

What Liberal supporters think

When asked about key traits for the next Liberal Party leader, 60% consider it “very important” for whoever takes over after Dion to have experience as an economic manager, and 50% want a person who is fluent in both official languages.

Almost half of Canadians (49%) think it is “very important” for the next Liberal leader to have experience in international affairs. Other issues—such as charisma (37%), experience in the federal cabinet (32%) and experience in provincial politics (32%)—are not as significant.

Finally, Canadians were asked when they expect the Liberals to form the Canadian government again. Almost three-in-ten (28%) believe a Grit administration will come after the next federal election, one-in-four (24%) believe it will take two federal ballots for the Liberals to return to power, and 18% believe the feat will require three or more federal elections.

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Seat predictions from the Election Prediction Project and democraticSPACE.

To compare, you may check out:

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 5

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 8

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 10

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 12

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Riding predictions from the Election Prediction Project, Vote for Environment project and democraticSPACE.

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National, provincial predictions as of Oct 12

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 5

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 8

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 10

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Riding predictions from the Election Prediction Project, Vote for Environment project and democraticSPACE.

Note that in VFE projections, Burnaby-New Westminster (to Conservative), Richmond (to Liberal), Vancouver Kingsway (to Liberal), Vancouver Quadra (to Liberal) and West Vancouver (to Liberal) have first-places changed from Oct 8.

However, while the other two other prediction projects not changing their projections, these ridings remain nail-biting on E-night.

To compare, you may check out:

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 5

Metro Vancouver riding predictions as of Oct 8

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CP - The governing Conservatives have been widening their lead over the Liberals in the final days of the election campaign, thanks in large measure to burgeoning support in Ontario, a new poll suggests.

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll gave Stephen Harper’s Tories 35% support across the country, followed by the Liberals at 25% and the NDP at 18%.

The Green party was at 11% and the Bloc Quebecois at 9%.

The Conservatives have been benefiting from growing support in Ontario and recovering confidence in Harper’s leadership skills, said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

“Momentum decidedly belongs to the Conservatives,” Anderson said.

“Ontario is where a lot of the volatility has been over the last few days and it’s clear the Conservatives bottomed out there.”

In Ontario, the Conservatives matched their national numbers at 35% - up sharply over a low of 26% last week - with the Liberals relatively flat at 32%.

The NDP, which has been aggressively courting stray votes in Ontario in recent days, was at 22%, with the Greens at 11%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois was leading at 41% with the Conservatives a distant second at 23%, the Liberals at 21%, the NDP at eight% and the Greens with five.

East of Manitoba, the Tories remain vulnerable to persistent and deep-seated fear of the ongoing economic turmoil, Anderson said.

“For some voters the ballot issue is, `Steady hand on the tiller,’ but for many - perhaps more - the question is, `Who will do more to protect us from harm?”’ he said.

“There is little doubt that the Conservatives best outcome lies in a ballot question that centers on the broader idea of leadership in challenging times, while for the Liberals the better question is leadership that cares about and will help you when you need it.”

The numbers also suggest the Liberals are no longer as popular a second choice for Tory or NDP supporters who are considering changing their vote, he added.

“Among Conservative switchers, the NDP wins as much as the Liberals. Among NDP switchers, the Conservatives and the Greens eat into what in the past has gone Liberal.”

The latest results represent 1,273 interviews conducted Tuesday through Friday with a margin of error of 2.7%, 19 times out of 20.

Because of the smaller sample size, the margin of error is larger for demographic and regional breakdowns.

More information on the poll is available from www.harrisdecima.com. Respondents to the poll were asked the following question: “If a federal election were to be held tomorrow, whom do you think you would be voting for in your area?”

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KEY FINDINGS

• 45% of Canadians say a Tory majority would not be able to run a balanced budget (up from 38% in early October)
• 47% say Conservative majority would keep taxes low, 41% disagree 64% say they would increase role of private health care
• 64% say they would cut arts and film funding
• 39% expect them to reverse same-sex marriage legislation

Angus Reid release – The proportion of Canadians who think a Conservative majority government would be unable to maintain a balanced budget has increased in just one week, a new Toronto Star / Angus Reid poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 2,000 adults asked Canadians to foresee what the Conservative Party would do if it were to form a majority government after the Oct. 14 election.

44% of respondents say that the party led by current Prime Minister Stephen Harper would not be able to run a balanced budget with a majority mandate. This number has increased by seven points since an identical survey was conducted last week.

On fiscal matters, 47% of respondents would expect a Tory majority to maintain taxes low across the country (up from 37% last week).

However, 41% would not expect this to happen. Almost two thirds of respondents (64%) say the Conservatives would give private medical care a greater role if granted a strong mandate by the voters. And 64% of Canadians say that the Tories would reduce funding for arts and film programs. Both numbers are practically unchanged since the last poll.

A significant number of Canadians—though not a majority (less than 40%)—think that a Conservative majority government would be likely to reverse current legislation allowing for same-sex marriage and re-criminalize abortion.

Forty% of all respondents foresee a Tory majority introducing reforms to allow senators to be directly elected, while 36% do not.

Additionally, 46% of respondents disagree with the notion that Quebec separatism would be subdued during the tenure of a Conservative majority (down from 49% a week ago).

Canadians who identify themselves as Green Party voters are now much less likely to trust in a Conservative majority’s ability to manage some aspects of the economy comparing to last week. While 38% of them thought last week that the Tories would be able to maintain a balanced budget, only 23% agree this week. And while 45% of Green supporters thought Harper’s party could maintain low tax rates across Canada, this number has dropped to 22% this week. The same phenomenon has occurred amongst NDP supporters, though at a smaller scale.

Bloc Québécois voters continue to believe much more than others that abortion would be recriminalized (77%) and same-sex marriages would be banned (59%) under a Tory majority mandate. More BQ backers now also believe that the threat of Quebec separatism would be subdued under a Tory majority government (31% compared to 23% last week).

Amongst Liberal Party voters, 49% think that under a majority led by the Tories, Canada would see abortion re-criminalized (up six points since last week); 53% believe same-sex marriage legislation would be repealed; 79% foresee private health care playing a larger role in the system, and 83% say funding for the arts would be diminished. Comparing to last week, more Liberals now think that the Conservatives would maintain taxes low (44% now, 33% on Oct. 3).

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Angus Reid release – With only a few days left until the federal election and a persistent lead for the Conservative Party, the option to partake in ‘strategic voting’ in order to reduce the possibility of a particular party forming the next government is still on the minds of many Canadians, a new Toronto Star / Angus Reid poll has found.

The online survey of 2,000 adult Canadians—which shows slight differences from a similar poll carried out a week ago—also questioned respondents about the reasons behind the key factors influencing their voting decisions and what they place importance on when choosing a candidate or a party.

In the new survey, 39% of respondents (+2) would consider voting for a candidate they dislike with the hope of reducing the chances of a specific party forming the government, while another 31% (+1) say they are willing to vote for a party they dislike to force the defeat of a particular candidate in their riding.

When asked to agree or disagree with a series of statements about the reasons behind their voting decisions, almost nine-in-ten respondents (88%, =) say they are voting for a specific party because of its policies and values, while three quarters (74%, +1) say they like the party’s leader. Another three-in-five (60%, +2) like the candidate in their riding and slightly less than half (46%, +4) claim that tradition and history plays a key role.

KEY FINDINGS

• 39% of respondents would vote for a candidate they dislike to ensure a specific party does not form government;
• 31% would vote for a party in order to defeat a specific candidate
• 64% of respondents are willing to vote for a specific party in order to reject other parties (+7).

The proportion of people who would choose a specific candidate as a sign of their rejection towards other parties increased by seven points since the previous survey (64%, compared to 57% last week).

On the topic of key factors affecting a respondent’s voting decision, the results do not vary greatly from the previous survey. The party’s proposals (85%, -1) and the choice of leader (85%, +1) remain the most important factors; followed by the choice for candidate in a specific riding (67%, =); a respondent’s aversion to other parties (55%, -1); and his or her allegiance to a specific party (49%, +3).

Political Analysis

Once again, the most striking differences in numbers are found in the political analysis. When asked whether they would consider voting for a party they dislike to defeat a specific candidate in their riding, the proportion of Liberal Party supporters who said “Yes” increased by five points (47%), while those voting Conservative increased by two points (18%, +2).

The Greens remained the same (46%), while the number of NDP and Bloc supporters willing to partake in strategic voting decreased by at least seven points. Regarding a vote for a key candidate in order to defeat a specific party, the story is slightly different.

While Conservative supporters still show an increase in the number of people willing to partake in this activity (22%, +1), the number has decreased for every other party.

On the topic of important issues influencing voting decisions, Green voters are least likely to find most of the factors very or moderately important—with the exception of ‘aversion to other parties’. In regards to this question, Liberal, Conservative and Green supporters are generally even in their answers, while NDP and Bloc voters are least likely to find this aspect important.

Other notable increases are found with NDP and Liberal supporters: 60% of Grit voters (+14) believe allegiance to a specific party is important, along with almost half of NDP backers (49%, +12).

The numbers that saw the biggest changes from the previous survey relate to the main reasons respondents choose when voting for a specific party. In particular, significant alterations are found when Canadians were asked whether they are voting for a specific party in order to reject other parties.

Seventy-one% of Conservative voters (+7) strongly or moderately agreed; along with 65% of those backing the Liberals (+7); 70% of NDP voters (+9), 58% of those siding with the Bloc (+2) and three quarters of Green party supporters (-3, the only party to see a drop).

Conservatives continue to choose their party primarily because of its leader (90%, +1) and because of its policies and values (95%, -1).

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I’m putting out another round of riding predictions from the Election Prediction Project and Vote for Environment project. This time, the one done by democraticSPACE is also included.

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Here are the predictions of outcomes for hotly contested BC ridings as of Oct 5. Data are collected from the Election Prediction Project and Vote for Environment project, each claims to base their predictions on all available latest poll results.

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G&M - The New Democratic Party has nearly doubled its support in British Columbia battleground ridings in less than a week at the expense of both the Liberals and the Conservatives, a poll shows.

The NDP has the support of 30% of voters in those key ridings, according to a poll conducted Sept. 7 to 9 for The Globe and Mail and CTV News. That’s up from 17% in a poll conducted Sept. 4 to 6.

Just a week ago, the NDP was trailing significantly in key B.C. ridings, with a poll showing the party carrying 17% of the vote, behind the Liberals at 25% and the Conservatives with 45%.

“This is a trend line,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll. “It’s the strongest trend we’ve seen develop.”

Despite the NDP surge in B.C., the Tories are positioned to be the main beneficiaries, the Strategic Counsel said. The trend suggests that the Liberals would lose all six of the 10 B.C. battleground ridings they won in the 2006 election, with four of those going to the Tories and two to the NDP.

The poll tracks 45 of the closest ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec. All the ridings saw especially tight races either in the 2006 election or recent by-elections.

Full story here.

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